Monday, January 05, 2015

Tesla's plan to profit from battery power... very interesting analysis from Car and Driver magazine

Barring a breakthrough in battery technology, the largest cost savings for Tesla will come from optimizing every aspect of the supply chain. Musk wants to go as far as importing steel and aluminum to stamp out cases for the battery packs.

“It’s a lot faster, a lot less linkage, a lot less packaging, and inventory would be reduced,” says Bob Rauh, director of business development for automotive and infrastructure at Panasonic.

Today’s Model S batteries are manufactured in Japan before taking the long boat ride to California. Moving those processes stateside eliminates logistics expenses and Tesla’s exposure to Japan’s electricity rates, which are roughly twice those of the United States.

 Musk plans to drive his energy expenses even lower with an expansive solar array and wind turbines on-site. (Conveniently, Musk is also chairman of the SolarCity energy-systems enterprise.)

Musk’s ambition—he claims the Gigafactory will supply battery packs for 500,000 cars per year by 2020—means Panasonic could be manufacturing billions of battery cells annually for Tesla. That kind of volume would allow Tesla to create its own economies of scale for a new battery shape rather than depend on the 18650. “The sheer size of the Gigafactory allows us to drive what is the most cost-effective size of the battery,” Rauh says.

Analysts at Credit Suisse recently released a report suggesting Tesla could drop the cost of a powertrain from $16,500 to $7500, putting electric technology on par with the cost of a high-end internal-combustion engine.

http://blog.caranddriver.com/tesla-ceo-elon-musks-next-big-disruption-isnt-a-new-car-its-a-new-battery/

But to understand Tesla a bit better, read this:

Since its IPO in July 2010 to right now, Tesla stock has risen 930 percent. Its market cap—the total value of all publicly issued shares—is nearly double that of Fiat-Chrysler and almost half of General Motors. This is an automaker that does not report monthly sales, is weirdly secretive of inventory levels, owns its own dealers, has an inordinate amount of its revenues tied in selling zero-emission vehicle credits, and has made a profit for exactly one quarter.

Co-founder and CEO Elon Musk has a roughly 25 percent stake and started the company with nearly all of his own money. He won’t allow it to die. Between the hot product, a dearth of many true competitors, and anti-establishment leadership, Tesla—at least before it scales to hundreds of thousands of cars per year—continues to cash in on its outsider status

Tesla only builds high-speed luxury cars, none of which move for a penny under 71 grand. With options and go-faster gear, most Model S cars leave the factory closer to $100,000 and even higher in overseas markets like Norway, where the company ships the pieces and reassembles them to avoid heavier import duties. Model S customers, by and large, are not swayed by gas prices and already own at least one other gas-powered luxury car. Unlike the Nissan Leaf and similarly affordable compact EVs, the Model S is both an indulgence and a prohibitively expensive social statement. This was true of both the Tesla Roadster and it will be, too, for the Model X. Tesla purchases are fueled entirely by passion and/or fashion, not by value or a desire to reduce one’s fuel costs.

http://blog.caranddriver.com/four-reasons-why-tesla-wont-sink-even-if-the-signs-say-it-should/

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